After a year of significant changes in the fiscal agenda, along with signs of solid recovery, an economic rebound is expected for in 2025.

The Argentine economy has begun to show favourable results in 2024, and this trend is expected to continue in 2025.

The objectives of the Government’s economic programme, which has received high levels of public support, are: an unmovable fiscal rule of zero deficit and the elimination of money printing by the Central Bank (BCRA).

National monthly inflation is now below 3%. This, along with the official rate moving to a controlled fixed monthly rate, suggests that the inflation rate should ensure inflation continues to decline rapidly. The annual rate was 211% in 2023 but should is expected to be below 30% in 2025.

Also, the official exchange rate of the Argentine peso is expected to end 2025 at around 1,300 pesos per dollar, or even lower. In this context, although the nominal interest rate in local currency will continue to fall due to lower inflation, the speed of this decline will not be linear because the demand for private credit in pesos will continue to rebound.

The tax amnesty plan launched in August 2024 generated new flows to the financial system with an inflow of more than $22 billion in to special cash accounts. This amnesty was not aimed at collecting taxes but at reactivating the private sector.

The increased flow of dollar supply, along with the rest of the economic programme, allowed the Central Bank (BCRA) to buy more dollars at a time of seasonal lows in the foreign exchange markets to, increaseing the BCRA'sits reserves. 

At the same time, the exchange rate gap —the difference between the official dollar value and other market quotations— significantly narrowed. As, while the country's risk rating improved, falling below 600 points, and equity assets grew strongly.

Economic activity has already begun to recover after the severe recession at the beginning of 2024, so . In this scenario, we expect the economy to expand by more than 4% in 2025. Growth will be, led mainly by energy, mining, agriculture, and other sectors linked to natural resources.

Disinflation should also lead to an increase in real wages on average, which would improve consumption with credit as a buffer.