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The big question this year is what economic policies Donald Trump will apply in the United States and how they will affect the global economy. Latin America’s major economies successfully navigated the period of global interest rate hikes in 2022 and 2023, but a stronger dollar is already adding pressure to local currencies. How central banks and governments react will be crucial.
The policies anticipated from the new administration would boost short term growth in the U.S. but also result in higher inflation and interest rates. The question is whether this expected growth in the U.S. will be to the detriment of others.
The global economy begins 2025 in a strong position, with reasonable growth levels in 2024, inflation under control and historically low unemployment.
Latin America has great potential to capitalize on its abundant natural resources, human capital and emerging technological innovation, but it will need to manage economic policy with expertise to navigate the challenges ahead.
Countries in Latin America will also face the effects of the new US administration’s policies. After successfully bypassing the global rate hike cycle, the dollar’s strength is now putting pressure on some of the region’s currencies and central banks must stay focused on monetary policy. The region has good external fundamentals in terms of foreign exchange reserves and trade balances, although it still needs to make progress on the fiscal side to bring debt to sustainable levels in the long term.
2025 Outlook
The global economy in 2025: starting strongly but facing big unknowns
Today’s volatile world – ongoing geopolitical conflicts, uncertainty around the path under a new US administration, and long-term challenges about an aging population and the emergence of artificial intelligence – make for any economic outlook for 2025 to be tentative. However, in economic terms the world is starting the year positively.
Reforms strengthen Brazil's economic resilience
The country's strategic reform program promises simplification and introduces an innovative electronic collection system, says Ana Paula Vescovi.
Critical minerals and green transition, key to Chile's continued success
Chile is on its way to trend growth and a neutral monetary policy, says Fernando Larraín.
Foreign investment and private consumption, key to Mexico's growth
The Mexican economy faces significant challenges in 2025, but also opportunities to attract more foreign and improve living standards, says Alonso Cervera.
Argentina: the economy’s normalization will continue in 2025
The economic agenda has begun to show favourable results in 2024 and is expected to continue this trend in the new year, says Rodrigo Park.
