Short- and long-term global risks

The World Economic Forum released its annual Global Risks Report for 2025. Conclusions show a map of increasingly complex and urgent risks to face, in an unstable and uncertain international environment, in which polarizing narratives that erode trust in institutions and divide society are accentuated. According to the report the structural forces that will shape the materialization of global risks are technological acceleration, geostrategic shifts and climate and demographic changes. Although international collaboration would be a fundamental way to deal with common risks, the report points out that 64% of respondents believe that the world will move towards a multipolar or fragmented order with regional rules and norms in the next decade.

Main findings of the report:

• Top five global risks in 2025 over the next two-year period: Misinformation and disinformation, extreme weather events, state-based armed conflict, societal polarization, cyber espionage and warfare.
• Environmental risks are consolidated as the main long-term concern and require increasingly urgent solutions. As in the previous year, top four risks in the long term (10 years), are all environmental risks: extreme weather events, critical change to earth systems, biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse, and natural resource shortages
• Misinformation and disinformation and social polarization rank at the top positions in the short and long-term rankings: In addition to fueling social and political divisions, the use of misinformation and disinformation, which is accelerated by generative AI, can affect voter intentions in democracies, cast doubt on what is happening in conflict zones, undermine trust in institutions and increase social polarization around specific events, instead of promoting common cohesive values. Together with the rest of the social risks mentioned in the report (increased inequality, lack of economic opportunities, migratory movements and erosion of fundamental rights and civil liberties) they would suggest an increased risk of fragility of social stability in the next two years. In those countries with older societies, the crisis of pension systems and the shortage of workers will be long-term risks with no easy fix for governments.
• State-based armed conflicts and geoeconomics: state-based armed conflicts are the main risk in 2025 for 23% of respondents, in a world in which security considerations and unilateralism begin to dominate political agendas, favoring authoritarian behavior, tariff wars, protectionist policies, and regional divergences that add uncertainty for the global economy forecasts.